This multi-series of articles is an idea I’ve had mulling over in my mind for the past few months and is one that I think will be helpful to a (relatively) large audience. A lot of the concepts I will discuss are applicable to Supernova Elite (SNE) chasers in general and are not Pot Limit Omaha (PLO) specific, however there will be certain aspects on the guide specifically on PLO.
Part 1 – Is it worth it financially?
Supernova Elite. It has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it? “I could do that”. Bonuses upon bonuses. Round-the-world trips to exotic destinations. 5x FPP multiplier. It sounds glorious. Incredible. Splendiferous, if you will! And it is – don’t get me wrong – oh, it is. That doesn’t mean it is necessarily the easiest and most direct pathway to riches for you personally though. If you wanna be “swimmin’ in money like Scrooge McDuck” (and let’s be honest, who doesn’t?) you first need to crunch some numbers.
X = $ You would make achieving SNE
Y = $ You would make not achieving SNE (ie by playing fewer tables / higher stakes / less volume / whatever)
If X > Y then it’s worth it.
This part of it actually is THAT simple.
When considering the money you would make achieving Supernova Elite you must consider not only the value of SNE itself but also any winnings you may make at the tables. It’s also not entirely impossible that you may actually incur losses at the tables and thus your overall total profit will be less than the total value of SNE.
What is the value of SNE? About $105,000. It goes up and down depending on whether you start as bronze star or supernova or whether you play all the freerolls or not and what tournament packages you take (or if you just take cash) but basically you’re looking at a smidge over 100k. It’s good money. Great money. Is it worth it? That is only something you can work out for yourself. I can help. Others can help. You should seek out the help and advice of others — but at the end of the day if you don’t know everything there is to know about getting SNE, what it’s worth to you and whether it is your best option, you should not be attempting it.
In order to offer some assistance I have created a few tables that show the breakdown of VPP rates per stake from 1/2 to 25/50 PLO into monetary and bb values. The second table shows how many VPPs you stand to gain per hour playing x tables at y stakes. The third table shows the hourly winrate you would make playing x tables at y stakes (assuming you hit SNE). I used 75 hands per hour as a rough estimation so true numbers may vary. I also used $0.105 as the value of each vpp, a figure that I arrived at by dividing $105,000 by 1,000,000.
There’s a lot of information within these tables, and I hope it helps you. Use it to weigh your options and decide the best past to SNE (or not) for you. Some interesting facts to note are the break-even points at which the rakeback earned stops compensating for losses incurred. For example, at 5/10 you could be a 1.58bb/100 loser in the games and still break even if you manage to hit SNE by the end of the year. Having said that it is an extremely risky and dangerous proposition to attempt SNE with a negative winrate: the swings will be monstrous and you won’t see the bulk of the worth of the SNE package until later in the year (or until you actually hit it) and thus need to be careful of your ROR (Risk of Ruin).
Also note that these numbers are approximations. If anyone has more data that shows different to what I’ve used (in particular vpp/hand rates or hands/hr) then please leave a comment or shoot me and e-mail and I’ll update the figures. Similarly I didn’t include any stakes lower than 1/2 because I have no hands in my DB to use to get a meaningful estimation — if you want me to create a table with this information then please tell me the vpp/hand rates for the stakes you’re interested in and I would be happy to create one for you.
To conclude: 24-tabling 1/2 PLO for a cool $177.41 per hour in rakeback may seem like a sweet deal right now but when you lose at a rate of 1bb/100 (or $36/hr) and open yourself up to 5-figure downswings, you run a very high risk of failure. Losing money consistently is not only bad for the BR but is cancer on the mind. You will go insane; always wondering when your next bonus is coming, how far away you are from a milestone and when-oh-when the beats will stop. This can and will lead to poor play and an even worse winrate, resulting in further losses and so on and so forth. You may well be far better off working on your game, moving up in stakes and playing 8-12 tables of 3/6 for a comparable VPP rate and far less stress. Or further still you might stick to 4 tables, have a great winrate, move up to 5/10+ and all-of-a-sudden $105,000 is a month’s work rather than a year’s grind. Then there’s the last option: you could be one of the rare few savants who can 12-24 table, show a positive winrate, and simply obliterate everything in your path. I’ll leave you now with that inspiring thought in mind and a YouTube clip that mirrors our ultimate goal from all of this silly poker nonsense:
Stay tuned for Part 2! I have several topics in mind however suggestions are always welcomed.